Discussion Archives:Recession by Summer?
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| 12 April 2012 | |
| Looks like we'll have a slowdown or maybe even a recession starting in July and proceeding through the election. We need all you tax professionals to spend your bankroll that you've made over the tax season and quick to stimulate the economy. The commodity speculators are killing us.
We have a glut of physical oil in the US to the point that we are net exporters of petroleum products, yet the price of gasoline goes up and this pushes through to everything else that gets transported e.g. food. On top of that, state and local spending is down and will stay down. The best we can hope for is stagflation but we could have a recession. | |
| 4 May 2012 | |
| I still think we could slow down in July into September.
I suspect that the root cause or major contributor to this is a slow down in spending by state and local governments and the fact that credit is still tight for many Americans. | |
| 1 June 2012 | |
| No recession but we do have an anemic economy.
I have been saying for over a year now that what our economy lacks is demand. If you make the argument that money is plentiful but credit is tight there is a reason for that: the banker wants to see some demand in the economy as well. It looks bad for Obama but I have seen this coming for months. It's not his fault because the Elephants have continually obstructed all efforts to stimulate the economy through government spending. The feeble effort at the beginning of the Obama Administration was a day late and a dollar short. It needed to be twice the size it was for it to have a chance. This is the perfect trap for Mitt Romney. If he wins and if he puts in a budget anything like he mentioned in his speech to CPAC it will make a bad situation far, far worse. With Europe slow and China and Asia slowing I hope it begins to dawn on at least some people that austerity is not the answer. Romney will be in a terrible box because he's announced to his base that he will cut, cut, cut and I don't know how he would get out of the trap. A country cannot save itself out of recession particularly when the rest of the world is slowing down at the same time. A QE3 won't work in the same way that the first two did not work. All it does is increase the supply of money which temporarily inflates the price of financial assets like stocks, and it does nothing for the general economy. I have a feeling what whoever wins the presidency will wish he had never heard of the word president before it's over this time. | |
| 1 June 2012 | |
| JD I truly was trying to discuss FACTS with you, but this here is sheer smoking weed fantasy!
"Pleanty of Cheap money around. WHERE? The economy LACKS "Employment" Clinton created the Mortgage bust when he signed the Social Mortgage bill into law (that was its nickname!) That became the toxic mortgages, do you factual research! OBAMA has stimulated the economy with $5 TRILLION DOLLAR, rasing the USA debt for $11 TRILLION when he took office to $16 TRILLION in "3" years! Its took 50 years to grow the US debt from zero in mid 60's to the $11 TRILLION just before Obama. 31% of the $16 TRILLION is THREE years and 69% of the $16 TRILLION took FIFTY YEARS! Now its Europe, well if it is remember HOW SOCIALIST WELFARE STATES THEY ARE! Austerity is not the answer??????? What SPEND more & more BOWWORED MONEY IS YOUR ANSWER!?! Some people choose to accept the RESPONSIBILITY! I was going to try to discuss more with you, but that is abvioulsy not possible with SUCH a "closed-minded" person, see Websters. You really should stay with being a lawyer, it that is working for you, economics sure is not. Or continue your green lantern type posts. | |
BobTheMobCPA (talk|edits) said: | 1 June 2012 |
| Mufid, I was going to ask you to do the same thing: write about taxes or something you actually know something about. Your political and economic discussions are far worse than CrowJD's. But I guess if you have to put up with his, then we have to put up with yours.
Curious why you are so into name calling. And telling people they are smoking weed. Would you want someone to do that to you based on your endless rants? Guess what? No one is interested. | |
| 1 June 2012 | |
| The Republicans have branded themselves as fiscal conservatives, but the fact is they have a bad record on the debt. Reagan quadrupled the national debt while he was in office. Bush/Cheney took all of Clinton's and Bush One's work and just absolutely trashed it. The only somewhat recent Republican president who actually tried to do something about the national debt was Bush One. And the Republicans gave him one term in office. The Republicans have never been serious about cutting the debt. Like so much of what they say and do, it's all talk.
Having said that, now is not the time to cut the debt. It would plunge the economy into a deep recession. It would be disastrous if you got carried away with it right now because of what is happening in Europe and China. The economy needs every dollar of Government spending it can get right now. Austerity programs actually bring about what they are meant to prevent. A large economy simply cannot save itself out of a slump. The more you save and cut, the more the economy slows down. You have to generate demand for goods and services by first by putting money in the hands of people who must spend the money every month. You need to put it in the hands of people who will not save it, but spend it. I feel sorry for whoever the next president is and I mean that. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| I have been gone for a couple of weeks fishing and with family matters and the next thing I know, I have been replaced as the resident Repub! At first, I though that Crow had morphed into a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde ! Mufid, I tried to post to your "From Mufid" and kept getting a server error ... it may have been that I was using an iPad while traveling.
We discussed government stimulus before ... Krugman is now a political hack that has not done any work for years. The two principal reason that government stimulus did not work are globalization and automation. Globalization gobbles up consumer stimulus ... consumer products are principally made off-shore ... great stimulus for China. Infrastructure projects just do not require the personnel that was needed a generation ago. I watched 1 person do a field survey for a construction project with a laser transit that would have previously require 3 people... you find this in every aspect of infrastructure projects. This administration has no clue as to what works in the economy. Take the Keystone pipeline, even if the oil is ultimately exported as gasoline or diesel fuel, this country would still profit from transportation charges and refining. We have companies that I mention all the time (Deere, Caterpillar, Boeing, etc) that manufactures in the US products that the rest of the world wants. The Obama adminstration is hostile to these products and companies. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| I'm not getting this from Krugman. I am getting this from the same economics text a lot of us probably used. Samuelson.
"We have companies that I mention all the time (Deere, Caterpillar, Boeing, etc) that manufactures in the US products that the rest of the world wants. The Obama adminstration is hostile to these products and companies." What do they need Snowbird, another tax break of some kind? Obama is certainly not hostile to these companies in any way. These are premiere American brands (especially Deere and Caterpillar) and the last time I looked at them they were doing well without any kind of additional corporate welfare in the form of additional tax breaks or anything else. I am glad they are doing well. Great companies. We need a lot more of them. But we have made it too easy to be a crook on Wall Street today and both Parties are to blame. Jack Welch noticed this real early. Why start a manufacturing company or invest in manufacturing when you can play games with paper and make billions with financial tactics that were once reserved for the criminal element? And it's all legal. No heavy plant and equipment required. We have been babying the rich since Reagan. We have handed out candy to them again and again and it's gotten us nowhere. I've been on record for a while as being ambivalent about the upcoming election. I certainly wouldn't vote for a Republican but it would not be the end of the world to see a Republican win the presidency right now. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| Bob the MOB, then have the courage of your convictions to discuss the issuse in "From Mufid" here in General Chat, and WHO does name calling?
JD, Now 2009-2011 was not the trime to ADD $5 TRILLION in debt, but Obama did, and the US Citizens got nothing for it, unemployment is lower now then when Obama took office, and that is NOT counting all those no longer being counted but still unemnployed. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| Mufid, there would not be an Obama without your friends Bush & Cheney. Never. But Obama got what he asked for, didn't he? He got a huge mess to clean up. It could have been dealt with better had our first government stimulus under Obama been at least twice as large as it was. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| Samuelson ... LOL. I probably have one of his editions in my basement somewhere. Samuelson's basic text and analysis was done long before globalization and automation. I cut my teeth on the multiplier–accelerator model. The model assumed a closed loop (no globalization) and the labor was a constant imput to production. It is encouraging that you have moved from the 19th to 20th century economics. However, Samuelson was a good capitalist ... he revised the text about every 2 years to eliminate the used book market.
"Obama is certainly not hostile to these companies in any way." Oh yes he is, his administration has no clue that you often have to have manufacturing in developing countries in order to import products into those countries. While my knowledge is old, but not as old as Sanuelson, we found that exports to a country increased when some products were locally manufactured. "would not be the end of the world to see a Republican win the presidency right now. ??? Have you been taking your medicine or had shock treatment again? LOL | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| I stand by what I said above.
And I can't think of a better time in my lifetime for a Republican to walk into the White House what with the present thinking in that Party. They have the wrong solutions for our present situation. Romney and Obama basically have the same problem, and of the two of them, I think Romney has even less room to maneuver. I think there is a chance he could get boxed into a disastrous predicament that his own Party won't let him escape. Hopefully the American people will remember the consequences for a long time to come. The Republicans are ready to make some big moves I think, and they will be trying to do it at exactly the wrong time. I'd even vote for a Republican this time if I was rational but I couldn't live with myself if I did. I'd also be nice to have a Republican Congress full of Tea Partiers so we could get it over as soon as possible and move on. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| JD
I'd even vote for a Republican this time if I was rational but I couldn't live with myself if I did. That IS the problem with ALL "closed-minded," liberal/progressive/socialists! Their rational side KNOWS socialism can't work, it has NEVER worked in any nation in the world, look at Greece NOW. BUT that they "can't help themselves" because their close-minded thinking won't LET them. As proof of my statement, you have yet to provide ANY factual rebuttal to any on my posts. I think Romney has even less room to maneuver. I think there is a chance he could get boxed into a disastrous predicament Created by 60 years of creeping massive socialism. 60% of annual Federal Budget (Budget = need for taxes in the first place) ALL for just social Entitlements (of with the US Constitution provided for NO social Entitlements). OH yes and 60 years to saddle the US economy with $16 TRILLION "DEBT" (Debt was Zero in mid 60's) AND $5 TRILLION of the $16 TRILLION "all" from Obama's First 3 years. Just what did the American (future generations GET for $5 TRILLION Debt, MORE unemployment than before it was spent, a non-union GM Saturn division shutdown by UNIONS, et al | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| JD
You do realize in all of this YOU have yet to post ANY factual information, merely propaganda sayings. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| Mufid, I doubt that anyone argues with the financial problems facing the country. I must admit that I have not read all your posts, but the ones I have read point out the problems but are short on solutions. If you want a discussion, start proposing solutions. Take health care, I think we would all agree that our neighbor should not prematurely die of heart disease because he lost his job and health insurance. Where we differ is what are the solutions. Crow prefers a single provider. I want a countervailing market power solution. Here a good discussion on Health Care from a year ago Discussion:They're Not Buying It: Poll It has the normal sarcasm and hyperbole that you would expect, but much of the discussion is very rational.
IF I was a socialist, I would point out that for Greece, there is a Germany and Sweden that seems to make it work, but then I am too much of an individualist to be Swede or German. Start posting solutions .... I like to refer to CrowJD as Crow. I have never ask where the id came ... from and do not want to know because whenever I read his posts, I have this picture in my head of a crow sitting in the top of a tree making all kinds of noise. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| I was watching a show on PBS last night regarding the Mass. health program. From what I could tell it seems to be working very well. It is a shame that Romney can't brag about it.
Why can't he brag about it or even talk intelligently about options? Because his base has been dumbed down. "As Ben Armbruster noted a while back, “An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out [in 2009] found that Fox News viewers were overwhelmingly misinformed about health care reform proposals. A 2008 Pew study ranked Fox News last in the number of ‘high knowledge’ viewers and a 2007 Pew poll ranked Fox viewers as the least knowledgeable about national and international affairs.” Empasis Mine In the end, the dumbing-down of the Republican base will work against the Republican Party itself. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_06/the_most_consistently_misinfor030360.php I support single payor because it's the most efficient way to manage what is a naturally inefficient, different type of market. We have a glut of people who need access to healthcare right now due to demographics and I think it's the best way to handle the problem. There could be a time where we would not need such a system. I'm not saying we'd need single payor forever. Something is going to change, that's the only thing I do know. I think it's likely the court will strike Obamacare down. We'll find out pretty soon. I think we'll have to see the opinion first to see if the court let any part of it stand. Obama says he won't give up on the issue but I think he'd have to see the opinion first before he could really make that claim. If the court strikes it down in it's entirety then I think Obama should leave it alone if he is re-elected and just let things brew. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| Finally, JD
Yes, I agree the healthcare system have many problems. That does not mean a bill (drafted in the whitehouse 2.700 pages) sent to house and senate (Polisi & Reed ADMIT on National TV they have not read it) sent back to the President who signs it is the answer! In fact since the US Constitution mandates all laws START as bills in congress, THEN sent to the President to sign INTO law is absolutely UNConstitutional at the get-go! No ONE, not even congress, let alone the US Citizens actually know "what" is in it. Ted Kennedy THE Government HealthCare Advocate died before his NEEDED vote could be cast. Mass. a absolutely Democrate State with Ted's senate seat democrate back to the pilgrims VOTE a Republican into that seat to cast a NO vote on ObamaCare! Democrates elected the Republican, not Republicans there are NOT enough Republicans in Mass. to do that. We the people wanted those 2,700 pages disected and DEBATED in congress, NO Obama forced it down our throats. EVEN ObamaCare GUTTED MCare. If re-elected Obama shoud do nothing. I agree IT IS NOT HIS RESPONSIBILITY, it NEVER was! That responsibility belongs to Congress! You seem to make Obama out as some GOD? | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| I think the Republicans have been working for a long time to gut Medicare, Mufid. I remember back in the early 2000s when the Republicans would not let Medicare bargain for volume discounts on prescription drugs in the "free market" because they wanted to help bankrupt Medicare.
I think Obama has been a pretty good president. Not a great president but a pretty good one. Obama is actually a moderate though he's been painted as a super liberal by the Right. My understanding is that Obamacare basically came out of the Heritage Foundation which is a conservative think tank. I think Romney used the same model in Mass, maybe not exactly the same but along those lines. I did not like everything about Obamacare, my thought was that it could be fixed in the future. I truly believe that rational people could get together and figure out how to begin to solve our healthcare mess. I've also said several times here that I do not believe that every American is entitled to cadillac care. So I would not agree with anyone on the Left who said that all care must be equal even if it bankrupts the country. I would be quite happy if we could at least agree to provide basic care to all Americans so they could go to routine doctors appointments and not end up in the ER at 10 times the cost to the system. It's probably more than 10 times the cost. Some Constitutional issues would have to be worked out perhaps due to the equal protection clause, but if there is a will there is a way. Also, I would never provide free care to anyone but the most indigent. Totally free care just encourages the hypchondriacs among us. So I am not against people with a lot of money (or people who think they will have a lot of money) to get a better or exclusive level of care. The only thing I would insist on is that if such a wealthy person decided to opt out of the government portion of the system, he could never get back into it again. | |
| 2 June 2012 | |
| JD, 1st Thank you for now discussing issues. You and I may not always have ALL of or facts, but maybe YOU and I CAN start REAL Professional "enlightment' for ALL hear.
I was really tiring of this place until right now with your TWO recent posts! Why do we (all) allow! OUR media to editirialize th e NEWS!
Where have we let our media become this from the days of Conkrite et al? Mcare
ObamaCare
Constitution
ObamaCare
Education
CONGRESS
| |
BobTheMobCPA (talk|edits) said: | 3 June 2012 |
| Mufid, if you aren't Hugh Hoskins, you are surely Beatle Fred. One or the other, they both droned ON and ON and no one cared to hear their story after awhile. But I think you are Hugh on your medication. | |
Bracket Creep (talk|edits) said: | 3 June 2012 |
| I think he is Hugh Hoskins too. Same age, same Vietnam experience, same tone of his posts, same spelling, grammar, and USE OF CAPITALIZATION to make HIS points OVER AND OVER. But he denied it. | |
| 3 June 2012 | |
| I have no idea what the "3" of you are talking about (including~ErnestMoney) who thinks a 1040 with Sch A & B is a Complex Tax Return!
All I do know is I did find, now can't find how I found, the USER Lists. I found hugh30 in CPA's. His bio does not say Hugh Hoskins. One of you posted not only the name, but the address & phone number also. I used your info to go to California's Accountancy Board. There is a Hugh Hoskins CPA in California. Whether hugh30 is or is not Hugh Hoskins I have no idea, but I have a question for both of you stalkers, Mob & Creepy?
Let's see:
Ernest harrassment of me also comes after I was polite to his NAIVE Post about what he thought was a "COMPLEX" (lol) Tax Return. Go read it in his Users Page Discussion and harrass me there too. | |
